Cheaper GR air fares coming? Really?

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) - Once Grand Rapids got more airlines flying in and out of town, the conventional wisdom was air fares would drop. Now that new airlines are here, is the conventional wisdom true?

Seems to be.

Flying out of Grand Rapids is a mixed bag. It's convenient, but fliers have had to put up with some of the highest fares in the nation.

Air Tran will begin daily service from Grand Rapids to four cities. Frontier Airlines is adding a flight to Denver. They are the first low-cost carriers to offer daily service in the market in years.

In fact, Air Tran claims - and industry analysts agree - that once they enter a market, fares for all carriers to all cities can drop 40 - 60%. Average fares dropped almost immediately and stayed that way.

"Basically, when all is said and done, I'd be surprised if airfare savings weren't in the millions and millions of dollars over the course of a year, easily," analyst Joel Antolini of Seabury APG told 24 Hour News 8.

Antolini is the analyst who first documented Grand Rapids "leakage" problem -- that is, when fliers leave the city to find cheaper fares elsewhere.

To see if Grand Rapids will be as lucky, 24 Hour News 8 priced fares to 12 different cities for eight time periods between now and September, and compared them to fares out of Detroit, Chicago and Flint.

Currently, fares to places like Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Newark, St Louis are at least $100 dollars cheaper out of Detroit, Chicago and Flint.

After May, once Air Tran begins in Grand Rapids, that price difference changes significantly. The biggest difference is to cities where Air Tran and Frontier will be flying non-stop, but there's a drop to other places, especially to Atlanta and Seattle,

The story continues below this chart.

  Read this comparative chart on Air Tran fares on trips to 11 cities from Grand Rapids, Detroit, Chicago and Flint.

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This table shows air fares to 12 popular destinations. Comparative prices to each city from Grand Rapids, Detroit, Chicago and Flint. All fares listed are between Feb. 24 - September 8, 2010, with approximate travel time. (NS = non-stop)

From Grand Rapids to:

Atlanta -- $237 - $498,1NS 2.25 - 5.25 hrs
Baltimore -- $160 - $302, 4NS 2- 5.5hrs
Boston -- $257 - $304, 3.2 - 6.5 hrs
Dallas -- $299 - 642, 4NS 2.5 - 6.25hrs
Denver -- $219 - $566, 4NS 2.75 - 6.25 hr
Los Angeles -- $256 - $379,  7hrs - 9 hrs
Newark -- $297 -- $319, 4NS 2 - 6.5 hours
Orlando -- $180 - $565, 8NS 2.5 -7 hrs
Phoenix -- $200 - $558, 2NS 3.5 to 9 hrs
St. Louis --$280 - $400, 2.5 - 4.2 hr
Seattle --$316 - $756, 7.2 - 9.2 hrs
W. Palm Beach -- $300 - $596, 5 - 8.5hrs

From Detroit to:

Atlanta -- $157 - 292, 2 NS 2 - 4.5hrs
Baltimore -- $140 - $183, 7 NS 2- 4 hrs
Boston -- $200 - $333, 1 NS 2 - 5.5hrs
Dallas -- $259 - $380, 2 NS 3 - 6hrs
Denver -- $199 - $398, 7NS 3 - 6.5hrs
Los Angeles -- $270 - $369, 1NS 4.5- 8 hrs
Newark -- $296 - $335, 1NS 2 - 3.5hr
Orlando -- $183 - $362, 5NS 2.5 - 6.5hrs
Phoenix -- $314 - $418, 5NS 4 - 8.5hr
St. Louis -- $139 - $298, 5NS 2 - 7hrs
Seattle -- $281 - $394, 1NS 5.2 - 11.2
W. Palm Beach -- $199 - $44, 6NS 3- 7 hrs

From Chicago to:

Atlanta -- $167 - 285, 3NS 2- 4.5hrs
Baltimore -- $237 - 250, 7NS - 4hrs
Boston -- $199 - $209, 6NS 3- 4.5hrs
Dallas -- $259 - $380, 2NS 3 - 8hrs
Denver -- $179 - $215, 7NS 2.5 - 5hrs
Los Angeles -- $237 - $250, 8NS 4.5hr
Newark -- $193 - $211, 6NS 2-4hrs
Orlando -- $167 - $394, 6NS 2.5 - 5.25hrs
Phoenix -- $301 - $439, 7NS 3.5 - 6hrs
St. Louis -- $139 - $274, 8NS 1 hr
Seattle -- $216 - $370, 2NS 4.5hr - 7.1hr
West Palm Beach -- $189 - $327, 1NS 3-9hrs

From Flint to:

Atlanta --  $159 - $368, 8NS 2.5hr
Baltimore -- $196 - $349, 3 hrs - 6hrs
Boston -- $277 - $365, 3 hrs - 6 hrs
Dallas -- $237 - $408, 4 hrs - 7hrs
Denver -- $220 - $369, 3.5 hrs - 8hrs
Los Angeles -- $266 - $458,  7 hrs - 9 hrs
Newark --  $237 - $242, 4 hrs - 8hrs
Orlando -- $189 - $604, 5NS 2.5 - 7.2hrs
Phoenix --  $270 - $644, 5.75 hrs - 9 hrs
St. Louis -- $260 - $414, 3 hrs - 6hrs
Seattle -- $286 - $776, 7 hrs - 16hrs
West Palm Beach, $260 - $526, 5 hrs - 8.2hrs

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Antolini said he "absolutely" believes Grand Rapids will see an Air Tran effect soon. "And whether or not it's Air Tran or Frontier, certain carriers have a way of making fares decrease very quickly."

That will have an effect on the legacy carriers, who aren't about to hand over customers to the low-cost airlines. To keep you , they'll offer cheaper fares plus more frequent flier miles, entrance into their clubs and other perks to persuade you to not try a new, different carrier.

That's why Air Tran will have to make money fast.

Dick DeVos, who co-founded the Regional Air Alliance of West Michigan , convinced Air Tran to give Grand Rapids a shot.

"We did not agree to write them a check," DeVos told 24 Hour News 8. "There were no tax dollars involved."

Instead they gave what they call "assurances" that Air Tran will fill its planes. "When it comes to air service,