Bill Steffen's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) - West Michigan winters are measured in three categories: snow, ice, temperature. Last winter, my prediction on snowfall was mixed, but on the mark for ice and temperature.

The 2010-11 winter saw Grand Rapids get 74 inches of snow, below my prediction of 88 inches, but still above the average of 72 inches. I was closer along the lakeshore, when I predicted 92 inches for Holland (they got 95) and 76 for Kalamazoo (they got 70, while nearby Oshtemo got 83.)

I also predicted "a better chance for a freezing rain event", and we had significant freezing rain across the northern and southern counties. We also had a paralyzing ice storm along I-94 in February.

Temperatures last season were .2 degrees below normal, putting my prediction within 2 degrees. I also said West Michigan would have a "volatile" winter with temperatures in the 20s followed soon by 50s. New Year's Day was 55 degrees, then the Groundhog Day blizzard hit, with temps in the mid-50s two weeks later.

Here's what we can expect for the winter season of 2011-12 ----

If you're thinking about getting a season pass for the ski hill, this year looks like a good time to do that. Thinking about hiring a snowplow service? Go for it.

Snowfall predictions for 2011-12:

• Grand Rapids -- 89 inches
  
• Kalamazoo -- 76 inches
  
• Holland -- 98 inches

A few lakeshore towns will hit 100 inches of snow this season.

About 57% of the time, snow falls on Christmas. This year, it's about a 75-80% chance.

There's also a better than average chance of a significant snow event -- that is, eight inches or more in a 24 hour span.

We also have a decent chance of some freezing rain, though hopefully not as intense as the February 2011 ice storm along I-94.

The winter will feel longer this year. The snow should begin to fall about mid-November and continue into at least early March.

Temperatures, overall, will be about 1 degree below normal.

So my prediction for Winter 2011-12: snowier and longer than last season.

Read more on Bill's Blog.